Sarah Crittenden Fuller

This study explores the relationship between rising student absenteeism and changes in student achievement since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic. We conduct a mediation analysis using detailed administrative data on middle school students in North Carolina to estimate how increased post-pandemic absenteeism has affected test scores. In 2021-22, math achievement remained 0.24-0.27 standard deviations (SDs) below pre-pandemic levels, while absence rates were 2.8 percentage points higher. We find that this increase in absences accounts for a 0.04-0.06 SD decline in achievement, explaining 16-23% of the total change in test scores. Further, increased absenteeism may have also widened racial/ethnic and socioeconomic achievement gaps. These results suggest attendance recovery efforts can play a key role in learning recovery.

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The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on students’ experiences in school were widespread. Early research show reductions in test scores across grade levels and student groups. This study extends research evidence to additional student outcomes – absences, course grades, and grad retention – and to examine how pandemic effects are distributed across students. Using a combination of descriptive and regression analyses, we find negative average impacts on all outcomes. These effects are largest at the high end of the absence distribution and the low end of the grade distribution. Effects are also largest in middle school for most outcomes and are typically larger among historically marginalized groups of students. These findings reflect widening achievement gaps and the need for targeted supports.

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