@EdWorkingPaper{ai26-1632,
title = "Variation in Post-Pandemic Postsecondary Transitions across Academic Subgroups",
author = "Tom Swiderski, Daniel Klasik, Sarah Crittenden Fuller, Steven W. Hemelt, Matthew G. Springer",
number = "1632",
year = "2026",
month = "October",
URL = "http://www.edworkingpapers.com/ai26-1632",
abstract = {We examine how trends in postsecondary readiness and enrollment from pre- to post-pandemic differ across student subgroups defined by pre-pandemic (8th grade) achievement levels. Using individual-level data from North Carolina and interrupted time series approaches, we find that students with high baseline achievement became less likely to apply to and enroll in a four-year college following the pandemic’s onset, whereas enrollment rates of students with low baseline achievement increased. Likewise, post-pandemic changes to key college readiness indicators, including high school college-level course-taking, GPAs, and ACT scores, were either similar or less negative for students with low baseline achievement relative to higher-achieving peers. These results may reflect multiple factors including pandemic-era changes to educational policy, declines in college interest, and floor effects on the ACT exam. Findings contextualize literature documenting post-pandemic declines in college enrollment and success and encourage further research on post-pandemic college persistence, completion, and workforce transition rates.},
}