TY  - JOUR
AB  - Human capital theory and signaling models posit that educational credentials convey information about workers’ skills, producing discrete labor market returns beyond years of schooling. While extensive evidence documents these “sheepskin effects” for degrees, far less is known about industry-recognized certifications (IRCs) earned in high school. Using statewide administrative data from Texas, this study examines the relationship between IRC attainment and early labor market outcomes for six cohorts of high school graduates (n = 1,698,846). Employing correlated random effects models, we estimate associations between IRC receipt and employment, earnings, and job stability and assess heterogeneity by subject area and demographics. On average, IRC attainment is unrelated to employment but associated with a 9 percent increase in earnings, larger than returns from each CTE course, but smaller than returns from CTE concentration. However, these benefits depend critically on alignment to CTE coursework. IRCs earned in the same career field as a student’s CTE concentration are associated with substantial gains in employment, earnings, and job stability, whereas misaligned IRCs not only confer no earnings benefits, but also are associated with losses in employment and job stability. Returns also vary significantly across credential fields and demographic groups, with larger earnings gains for White, male, and non-low-income students. These findings suggest that IRCs produce sheepskin effects only under specific conditions and raise concerns that IRCs are conducive to labor market inequity.
AU  - Sultana, Tasneem
AU  - Andrews, Madison E.
AU  - Giani, Matt S.
PY  - 2026
ST  - Cheapskin Effects? The Heterogeneous Value of Industry-Recognized Certificates Earned by High School Students
TI  - Cheapskin Effects? The Heterogeneous Value of Industry-Recognized Certificates Earned by High School Students
UR  - http://www.edworkingpapers.com/ai26-1412
ER  -