@EdWorkingPaper{ai26-1391,
title = "Who Is Newly Absent? Racial Inequities in Post-Pandemic Transitions into Chronic and Severe Absence in Georgia",
author = "Jerome Graham",
institution = "Annenberg Institute at Brown University",
number = "1391",
year = "2026",
month = "January",
URL = "http://www.edworkingpapers.com/ai26-1391",
abstract = {Chronic absenteeism rose sharply following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and has declined only modestly since, yet most evidence remains cross-sectional and cannot distinguish persistence from redistribution in absence behavior. Using a cohort transition framework, the analysis compares students' typical absence profiles across pre-pandemic and post-pandemic periods. The results show substantial redistribution toward higher-absence profiles. Nearly 10% of students with historically very low absence transitioned into chronic or severe absence post-pandemic. Black and Hispanic students face higher probabilities of entering chronic and severe absence than White students, even when starting from comparable pre-pandemic absence profiles. These findings indicate that post-pandemic absenteeism reflects both},
}