@EdWorkingPaper{ai25-1352,
title = "Does State-Mandated Third-Grade Reading Retention Policy Improve Achievement? Evidence from a Staggered-Adoption Difference-in-Differences Design",
author = "Sakib Mahmud",
institution = "Annenberg Institute at Brown University",
number = "1352",
year = "2025",
month = "December",
URL = "http://www.edworkingpapers.com/ai25-1352",
abstract = {This paper investigates whether the state-mandated third-grade reading retention policy autonomously enhances student achievement or depends on broader literacy reforms. Using district-level data from the Stanford Education Data Archive (2010–2019), I employ a staggered-adoption Difference-in-Differences design, as per Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021), to assess heterogeneous treatment effects across four adopting states: Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio, and Mississippi. Results indicate that states implementing retention mandates observe an increase of approximately 0.07–0.10 standard deviations in fourth-grade Reasoning through Language Arts (RLA) scores. Nonetheless, when the mandate is examined in isolation, compared to states with similar literacy initiatives that allow local discretion over retention, the effect diminishes to 0.014 and becomes statistically insignificant. Mississippi is different because of its comprehensive Literacy-Based Promotion Act, which combined retention with intensive teacher training, literacy coaches, and diagnostic supports, leading to larger gains in grade 4 (0.10–0.16 SD). The results indicate that the state-mandated retention policy, by itself, does not lead to better performance; improvements occur only when mandates are part of larger, well-guided literacy programs.},
}