@EdWorkingPaper{ai25-1294,
title = "The Design of Promises: The Structure of Local College Affordability Programs in the United States",
author = "David B. Monaghan",
institution = "Annenberg Institute at Brown University",
number = "1294",
year = "2025",
month = "September",
URL = "http://www.edworkingpapers.com/ai25-1294",
abstract = {We analyze 314 local college affordability programs (i.e., “Promise” or “free college” programs) using a novel dataset detailing, for each program, rules stipulating what programs provide (provision), where they may be used (applicability), and who may use them (eligibility). We perform three sets of analyses. First, we ask whether programs can be cogently described as involving greater or lesser provision (i.e., “generosity”), broader/narrower applicability, and more/less universal eligibility by examining the internal consistency of these sets of program rules. That is, are provision, applicability, and eligibility better thought of as coherent dimensions according to which programs vary, or just buckets of conceptually related rules? Second, we inquire into whether program design is strongly imitative by examining the relationship between program similarity and both temporal and geographic proximity. Finally, we perform a data-driven inquiry through cluster analysis. We discover that program structure is most strongly influenced by the level(s) of colleges at which programs may be used: only community colleges, only public four-year colleges, or both community colleges and public four-year colleges. We provide an interpretation of why this may be the case. We thereby contribute robustly to the slight but growing literature on how college affordability programs are designed.},
}