@EdWorkingPaper{ai23-713,
title = "Cows Don't Give Milk: An Effort Model of College Graduation",
author = "Maria Marta Ferreyra, Carlos Garriga, Juan David Martin-Ocampo, Angelica Maria Sanchez-Diaz",
institution = "Annenberg Institute at Brown University",
number = "713",
year = "2023",
month = "January",
URL = "http://www.edworkingpapers.com/ai23-713",
abstract = {This paper estimates a dynamic model of college enrollment, progression, and graduation. A central feature of the model is student effort, which has a direct effect on class completion and an indirect effect mitigating risks on class completion and college persistence. The estimated model matches rich administrative data for a representative cohort of college students in Colombia. Estimates indicate that effort has a much greater impact than ability on class completion. Failing to consider effort as an input to class completion leads to overestimating ability’s role by a factor of two or three. It also promotes tuition discounts based on a pre-determined student trait—ability—rather than effort, which can be affected through policy, thus limiting higher education’s potential for social mobility.},
}