@EdWorkingPaper{ai22-520,
title = "Using Predicted Academic Performance to Identify At-Risk Students in Public Schools",
author = "Ishtiaque Fazlul, Cory Koedel, Eric Parsons",
institution = "Annenberg Institute at Brown University",
number = "520",
year = "2022",
month = "September",
URL = "http://www.edworkingpapers.com/ai22-520",
abstract = {Measures of student disadvantageÑor riskÑare critical components of equity-focused education policies. However, the risk measures used in contemporary policies have significant limitations, and despite continued advances in data infrastructure and analytic capacity, there has been little innovation in these measures for decades. We develop a new measure of student risk for use in education policies, which we call Predicted Academic Performance (PAP). PAP is a flexible, data-rich indicator that identifies students at risk of poor academic outcomes. It blends concepts from emerging Òearly warningÓ systems with principles of incentive design to balance the competing priorities of accurate risk measurement and suitability for policy use. PAP is more effective than common alternatives at identifying students who are at risk of poor academic outcomes and can be used to target resources toward these studentsÑand students who belong to several other associated risk categoriesÑmore efficiently.},
}